<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?><!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD JATS (Z39.96) Journal Publishing DTD v1.0 20120330//EN" "JATS-journalpublishing1.dtd"><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" article-type="article">
<front>
    <journal-meta>
        <journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">INFEDU</journal-id>
        <journal-title-group>
            <journal-title>Informatics in Education</journal-title>
        </journal-title-group>
        <issn pub-type="epub">1648-5831</issn>
        <issn pub-type="ppub">1648-5831</issn>
        <publisher>
            <publisher-name>VU</publisher-name>
        </publisher>
    </journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
                <article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">INFE008</article-id>
                        <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.15388/infedu.2003.01</article-id>
                        <article-categories>
            <subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
                <subject>Article</subject>
            </subj-group>
        </article-categories>
                        <title-group>
            <article-title>Forecasting Models in the State Education System</article-title>
        </title-group>
                        <contrib-group>
                                        <contrib contrib-type="author">
                                                <name>
                    <surname>DZEMYDA</surname>
                    <given-names>Gintautas</given-names>
                </name>
                                <email xlink:href="mailto:dzemyda@ktl.mii.lt">dzemyda@ktl.mii.lt</email>
                                                <xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_INFEDU_aff_000"/>
                                            </contrib>
                        <aff id="j_INFEDU_aff_000">Vilnius Pedagogical University
Studentu 39, LT-2004 Vilnius, Lithuania
Institute of Mathematics and Informatics
Akademijos 4, LT-2021 Vilnius, Lithuania</aff>
                                                    <contrib contrib-type="author">
                                                <name>
                    <surname>SALTENIS</surname>
                    <given-names>Vydunas</given-names>
                </name>
                                <email xlink:href="mailto:saltenis@ktl.mii.lt">saltenis@ktl.mii.lt</email>
                                                <xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_INFEDU_aff_001"/>
                                            </contrib>
                        <aff id="j_INFEDU_aff_001">Vilnius Pedagogical University
Studentu 39, LT-2004 Vilnius, Lithuania
Institute of Mathematics and Informatics
Akademijos 4, LT-2021 Vilnius, Lithuania</aff>
                                                    <contrib contrib-type="author">
                                                <name>
                    <surname>TIESIS</surname>
                    <given-names>Vytautas</given-names>
                </name>
                                <email xlink:href="mailto:tiesis@ktl.mii.lt">tiesis@ktl.mii.lt</email>
                                                <xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_INFEDU_aff_002"/>
                                            </contrib>
                        <aff id="j_INFEDU_aff_002">Vilnius Pedagogical University
Studentu 39, LT-2004 Vilnius, Lithuania
Institute of Mathematics and Informatics
Akademijos 4, LT-2021 Vilnius, Lithuania</aff>
                                </contrib-group>
                                                                                                                                    <volume>2</volume>
                                <issue>1</issue>
                                    <fpage>3</fpage>
                        <lpage>14</lpage>
						<pub-date pub-type="epub">
                        <day>15</day>
                                    <month>10</month>
                        <year>2003</year>
        </pub-date>
                                                        <abstract>
                        <p>This paper presents model-based assessment and forecasting of the Lithuanian education system in the period of 2001-2010. In order to obtain satisfactory forecasting results, constructing of models used for these aims should be grounded on some interactive data mining. Data mining of data stored in the system of the Lithuanian teacher&#039;s database and of data from other sources representing the state of education system and the demographic changes in Lithuania was used. The models cover the estimation of data quality in the databases, the analysis of flow of teachers and pupils, the clustering of schools, the model of dynamics of pedagogical staff and pupils, and the quality analysis of teachers. The main results of forecasting and integrated analysis of the Lithuanian teachers&#039; database with other data reflecting the state of the education system and demographic changes in Lithuania are presented.</p>
                    </abstract>
                <kwd-group>
            <label>Keywords</label>
                        <kwd>modelling</kwd>
                        <kwd>forecasting</kwd>
                        <kwd>education system</kwd>
                        <kwd>data mining</kwd>
                    </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
</front>
</article>
